Observations for


Probability of Seasonal Daily Average Precipitation Tercile Conditioned on ENSO

This map shows the historical probability (given in percentile) of seasonal average daily precipitation falling within the upper (wet), middle (normal), or bottom (dry) one-third ("tercile") of the 1983-2010 historical distribution in the country given the state of ENSO (El Niño, Neutral, La Niña) during that same season.

Here, the ENSO state for each season is determined by the seasonal average of the NINO3.4 SST index. If the seasonal average NINO3.4 SST index is in the top (bottom) 25% of the historical distribution for the season, the ENSO state is classified as El Niño (La Niña). The ENSO state is Neutral if the NINO3.4 index falls between the 25th and 75th percentiles of the historical distribution. Use the controls on the page to select the season, precipitation tercile category of interest, and ENSO state.

Clicking on the map will then display, at the user desired spatial resolution, local yearly seasonal rainfall averages time series. The color of the bars depicting what ENSO Phase it was that year, and the horizontal lines depicting the historical terciles limits for the historical rainfall. This allows to quickly picture what years fell into what what ENSO Phase and into what Rainfall Tercile category.

NB: There is no forecast data in these analyses. It is only based on historical observations of rainfall and SST.

Dataset Documentation

Data Source: Monthly prcipitation from AGRHYMET


Contact help@iri.columbia.edu with any questions about or problems with this Map Room.